Sunday, February 7, 2010

Why The Speculative M&A Market Won't Return (until after 2014)

"While certain conditions have eased over the past year, refunding risk still faces huge uncertainties over the next five years. The sheer volume of debt due to mature in 2010-2014 will continue to raise concerns about the market’s ability to absorb this wave. More than half of this tower of debt—$550 billion of a total $805 billion over this five-year period—comes due in 2013 and 2014. And while issuers’ credit ratings are on the mend in general, the level of maturing debt from low-rated speculative-grade issuers has also been climbing. How the markets avoid being overwhelmed by this onslaught of debt will depend on a number of factors in 2013-2014 that cannot be predicted today, including the strength of the U.S. economy, the prevailing interest rates of the day, and the credit markets’ appetite for speculative-grade debt."
Good chart on speculative bond maturities in upcoming years: http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/madoff/Bonds%20by%20Ratings.jpg

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/lbo-refi-wave-approaches-800-billion-junk-debt-maturing-2014-adds-multi-trillion-fixed-incom

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