Now if I only had time to forecast this over time and compare to the number of people exiting the workforce due to retirement (think baby boomers).....
"Economists in the survey are predicting a slow upswing for the economy as a whole. Respondents on average expect economic growth to settle at about 3% in 2010, off sharply from the powerful 5.7% seasonally adjusted annual growth rate in the fourth quarter.
This is why job creation has become such a worrisome issue: Based on that growth projection, over the next year economists estimate the U.S. will add about 133,000 jobs a month. That sounds good and it's certainly better than more job losses. But with about 100,000 new jobs a month needed just to soak up new entrants to the work force, that pace of job creation will only slowly reduce the high unemployment rate.
The White House released its economic forecast Thursday, projecting payrolls will increase by an average of just 95,000 a month this year with the unemployment rate averaging 10%. The Council of Economic Advisors expects GDP growth to be about 3% in 2010, in line with the surveyed economists.
It isn't just weak growth that's damping job growth. "Companies, in the name of making money, substitute against labor through outsourcing or technology," said Allen Sinai of Decision Economics. Wages and benefits make workers "so expensive that who wants to hire them? As a result, the displaced workers won't be rehired unless we have double the growth rate we're expecting."
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703382904575059424289353714.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection
No comments:
Post a Comment