Sunday, February 14, 2010

Do People Not Read The WSJ Anymore?

This article provides a slap-in-the-face pronouncement for the near-term future of the US Economy.

Keep in mind that these are the same people who, on the whole, failed to see the risks associated with asset bubbles and the old economy.  So, for board members to be this bearish indicates that we are in for a bad time.  My favorite part of the quote is highlighted in yellow - a fantastic point.  The best indicator of future company earnings would probably be some measure of the change in R&D spending, but for now I'll take a generalization on how cost cutting across the board will make companies less competitive.  Then again, I'm guessing that there will be very few companies who haven't made these type of cuts - its all relative, right?

"A whopping 66% of 1,200 corporate board members surveyed recently said U.S. companies wouldn’t return to “business as usual” until at least 2013, and will operate till then in an environment of sluggish sales and growth. Roughly 45% said the economy wouldn’t return to precrisis levels in terms of investment, employment and productivity before 2013, according to the survey, conducted by KPMG LLP, while 22% said it would come beyond 2014.
“Not withstanding what economists are saying about the recovery, we are hearing from board members that they just don’t see it,’’ says Mary Pat McCarthy, a KPMG vice chairwoman who oversaw the survey of directors at publicly traded companies of varying sizes across the U.S.
McCarthy spoke to Deal Journal this morning from Miami where KPMG was hosting a conference of primarily audit committee members of corporate boards. “We are hearing a steady drumbeat down here that a recovery is a way’s off,” she said.
Another concern among board members: That the cost-cutting and layoffs that have helped boost corporate profits are going to hurt companies in the long term. The survey found that 67% of the respondents said were most concerned that cost-cutting would drain a company’s employee talent.
Other concerns: 36% said they worried cost-cutting would weaken internal controls, 25% said it could raise the risk of fraud and 22% said they thought the integrity of financial reporting could suffer in the hands of leaner staffs."

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