Monday, February 1, 2010

The Housing Market: We're Just Getting Started

Stealing 100% of this from Zero-Hedge (who probably stole it from someone else)

  1. Short-lived remedies; used by the administration to prevent further price deterioration (tax-credits);
  2. Shadow Inventory; in reality when accounting for the surging shadow inventory which very few dare talk about, the total number of available unit double to over 8 million, representing a record high 16 months of supply.
  3. Strategic defaults; the amount of households with negative equity is roughly 10 million or about 20%, in 2009 25% of all foreclosures were strategic; as populist anger against banks accelerates look for strategic defaults to keep rising
  4. Quantitative Easing expiring; This needs no introduction: the sole reason why mortgage rates have been as low as they have, has been due to the Fed's constant manipulation of the MBS market via the $1.4 trillion MBS/Agency QE purchase program. With this program set to expire in 2 months, rates are set to explode.
  5. House Prices are already entering a double dip; Previously we discussed the Case Shiller NSA home price index number which indicated that a double dip in prices has already commenced. A positive feedback loop will only lead to further deterioration here

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/next-leg-housing-crisis-five-simple-charts

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