Monday, February 8, 2010

ChinaFail.org

Should be the title of the next icanhazcheezeburger site.

"Yellen demonstrates that while China is forced to look to growing its own internal economy now that the export-led, current account surplus model is over, the transition will require yet more stimulus, thereby further inflaming the asset bubble, spurred by the massive overcapacity already in place in the country, and further pushing the country into a monetary-fiscal zone of disequilibrium. This would be exacerbated by any move to strengthen the Yuan, which is what has to happen for the US to keep inflating its troubles, yet won't happen so long as China continues being in denial about its bubble conditions, thanks to a phenomenal precedent set by none other than the Federal Reserve itself."

In the words of Ben Reiber - "BOOMSLAM!"  Yet another confirmation of what we already knew - the bubble in China will only become a bigger issue as time goes on (and it begins to pop).

My prediction: as it becomes apparent that hits is a jobless recovery, and consumer spending continues to lag, business spending that has so far been leading the 'recovery', will drop in a meaningful way.  October 2010 = Dow 8,000.

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