Tuesday, March 23, 2010

Dow @ 11k?

I don't understand how the Dow is at almost 11,000.  It makes no sense....

Assuming efficient markets, the explicit reasoning is that the market is worth roughly 66% more than it was in March of last year (market low = roughly 6,600).  You can factor in risk aversion and uncertainty, but I can honestly say that our economic situation hasn't changed enough to justify a 66% run-up in the value of the stock market in 1 years time.  Unemployment is high, underemployment is high (yes, I agree they are lagging indicators, but unemployment dictates consumer demand, which is ~70% of GDP), the housing market sucks (WAAAY too much inventory, too few buyers, and inventory numbers won't materially change for a while due to the waves of ARMs resetting and eventual foreclosures), and China has turned into a net importer (just plain weird).  Looking two or three years down the line, tech companies (on the whole) will have dry pipelines because they cut R&D over the last few years.  Small acquisitions will go up, providing a much-needed boost to VC, but R&D through acquisition is an expensive proposition. 

I don't see an event out there that will cause the correction that is needed, but I'll be damned if this run-up continues. 

One last note: the amount of high-yield debt being issued is astronomical.  There is a huge bubble in this asset class, so watch out...

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